All signs point to Bush losing to Senator Kerry, but still somehow he will prevail. Bush is facing a divisive nation, and a strong and organized opposition. Some people despise the man, his administration and his war in Iraq. The level of personal vitriol against him is at Reagan or Nixon levels. His approval rating has been below 50 percent consistently, a usual indicator of an incumbent’s fate. One other sign, Kerry’s Boston Red Sox overcoming an 86-year “curse” to win the World Series at Bus(c)h Stadium in St. Louis last week.

But history be damned, rules were made to be broken and signs can prove false. Bush will win again because despite all the bad news on Iraq, the return of Osama and iffy economic future, his opponent has never been able to sustain a lead in the polls. Not since the Republican convention has Kerry been in the lead. In any game, the team that holds the lead usually prevails. The other team is playing catch-up as Kerry has been. His performance in the debates was able to close the gap, but across most polls Bush maintains a two or three point lead.

Incumbents facing second term reelections normally lose big or win big. The losers: Herbert Hoover, George H.W. Bush, and Jimmy Carter. The winners: Ronald Reagan, Richard Nixon, and Bill Clinton. This Bush seems to be in a category all by himself. One where he maintains the support of his first election, without gaining or losing converts. His consistent lock-up of 48 percent of likely voters in the polls shows incredible stability with his base. Who is the Kerry base? Bush haters?

This election is all about Bush. He is a polarizing figure that evokes passion, where none appears to exist for Kerry. There is hatred towards Bush, not much love for Kerry. That is the problem. A better campaigner or more appealing figure (Bill Clinton, for example) would have been able to capitalize on the bad trends and indicators for Bush. On the flip side, the Red States are very much pro-Bush; they are as motivated to see him win reelection, as the Bush-haters are to see him lose. John Kerry is just that other guy in the election. After Tuesday, he will just another guy that could have been president.